Kentucky Derby: A study reveals the winning formula

Held on the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs, The Kentucky Derby is known as ‘the most exciting two minutes in sport. It is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of one and a quarter miles (2.0 km). This year the Derby starts on May 7 and it’s the first of the three races that make up the coveted Triple Crown. It’s followed by the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore and the Belmont Stakes on Long Island later in the year.

The Kentucky Derby has lasted through two world wars and a pandemic, and its popularity continues to increase worldwide. This is why we wanted to take a close look at the history of the Kentucky Derby over the last 30 years.

30 years of Kentucky Derby winners – the horses

We’ve analyzed the most common traits of Kentucky Derby winners over the last 30 years. Are there any patterns behind which horse wins? Who have been the most successful jockeys, or the best trainers? You might even find enough data in this article to spot this year’s winner.

Unsurprisingly, only 2 geldings have won the race compared to the 28 colt winners. There have been no filly victories in the last 30 years, and only 3 in the entire history of the race. What does this tell us? The winning Derby horse is very likely to be a colt and a filly landing the prize would be headline news.

Moving on to colors, 50% of Kentucky Derby winners since 1992 have been the reddish-brown color, known as bay. Chesnut takes second, and only 3 horses have been gray. Of the last 30 winning horses, 21 of them have been born in Kentucky. There is no other state that comes close to producing as many winners. So if you spot a bay-colored colt in the lineup that was born in Kentucky, the data says you could be on to something.

Perhaps the most shocking trend in the data is that only 30% of the favorites win the race. Only 9 of the 30 victors have been the favorite on the morning of the race in the last 30 years. Although this tells us that placing bets on favorites can be risky business, there may be some good news. Justify was the last favorite to win in 2018. This means that if 3 in 10 favorites win, and we’re into the 4th year without one – it could be time?

Many horse racing fans truly believe the starting position can make or break a race. As a rule, the higher the number, the harder the challenge. Interestingly, post position 16 has produced the most winners in the last 30 years. The average winning time is 2:04 ⅖ which is still some way behind the record set by Secretariat in 1973.

Jockeys, trainers, and owners 

It’s no secret that a powerful horse needs a great jockey. It’s the jockey that dictates the race, how fast a horse goes, the track conditions, and when to take their chance on the final straight. Over the last 30 years of Kentucky Derby, the average jockey age has been 36. The 3 most successful jockeys in our data are Calvin Borel, John R. Velazquez, and Kent Desormeaux – all of which have won the derby 3 times each since 1992. They say 3 is the magic number, right? 

Bob Baffet has been the most successful trainer in the Kentucky Derby over the last 30 days. Despite his horse, Medina Spirit, winning the race in 2021 but then being disqualified, Baffet still has 6 wins under his belt. There are two farms and owners that have produced the most winners in the last 3 decades, and they are Reddam Racing LLC and Robert B. & Beverly J. Lewis.

Using data to predict the 2022 winner

If you look at the lineup for this year’s 148th Kentucky Derby and take into account our data from the last 30 years, you can draw a few conclusions. Of course, there are many other variables involved, but the patterns are there for everybody to see.

The horse most likely to win the Kentucky Derby:

May the odds be ever in your favor.

Methodology

To support our research and report, we analyzed the data of the Kentucky Derby winners, horses, jockeys, trainers, and, farms over the last 30 years. We used websites like KentuckyDerby(dot)com and Wikipedia(dot)com to compile our list of common traits and patterns. We also used local state websites to investigate best post positions, morning line favorites, and winning times.