At Richmond last week, the final three Chase spots were decided and last year’s Championship contender Kevin Harvick made a statement of his own. By winning the 26th race of the season – and the final race of the regular season – Harvick snapped out of a slump and declared himself a favorite in what is shaping up to be one of the most wide-open championship races in the eight-year history of NASCAR’s Chase For The Sprint Cup. The Chase gets underway this weekend at Chicagoland featuring the Top 10 points-scoring drivers plus two wild cards contending for NASCAR’s Chase For The Sprint Cup Championship “playoff” system—the winner of which will be crowned at Homestead-Miami Speedway during Ford Championship Weekend Nov. 18-20.
And while it turned out that the Chase comprised the Top 12 drivers after all, the furious battle for the wild card and the unpredictability of the entire season mean that picking a winner at this point is a tough proposition. Here are the 2011 Chase contenders, in order of their seeding:
1. Kyle Busch (2012 points, four wins): Busch has six career wins at the upcoming 10 tracks. He scored the third-most points in the Race to the Chase – the 10 races preceding the Chase
2. Kevin Harvick (2012 points, four wins): Gained momentum with his Richmond win, and Chase know-how thanks to his near-championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway last season. Has eight wins at the next 10 tracks
3. Jeff Gordon (2009 points, three wins): Has 31 wins at the next 10 tracks, more than any other driver. Scored 392 points over the last 10 races, more than any other driver
4. Matt Kenseth (2006 points, two wins): Crowned NASCAR champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2003, Kenseth has seven wins at the next 10 tracks
5. Carl Edwards (2003 points, one win): Defending Ford 400 winner at Homestead-Miami Speedway and always strong at intermediate tracks, so figure on a solid showing (five tracks in the Chase are 1.5 miles in length including Homestead-Miami Speedway). He has seven wins at the upcoming 10 tracks
6. Jimmie Johnson (2003 points, one win): The only driver to make all eight editions of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup and has won the Championship five consecutive times
7. Kurt Busch (2003 points, one win): Won the first ever Chase at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2004. It was also the closest (eight points), a nod to his championship mettle. He has eight wins at the remaining 10 tracks
8. Ryan Newman (2003 points, one win): Scored six Top-10s in the Race to the Chase. Newman also has 10 wins at the upcoming 10 tracks, which ranks tied for fourth-most among Chase drivers
9. Tony Stewart (2000 points, no wins): Only driver to win the championship in both the Chase era (2005) and pre-Chase era (2002). Stewart has 16 wins over the next 10 tracks
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000 points, no wins): NASCAR’s eight-time Most Popular Driver had only one Top 10 in the Race to the Chase. But his 10 wins over the next 10 tracks rank tied for fourth among Chase drivers
11. Brad Keselowski (2000 points, wild card winner): Scored the second-most points in the Race to the Chase (362), and scored six Top 10s in the last seven races
12. Denny Hamlin (2000 points, wild card winner): Last year’s Championship runner-up held the lead going into the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Rolls into the Chase with three consecutive Top 10s
HMS PR
