You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, know when to run.” Coming from Kenny Rogers’ 1980 Grammy Award-winning song “The Gambler,” those four directives are bits of sage advice for anyone participating in a game of chance, and chance is something every NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver is well acquainted with, especially for those competing in the 2012 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
The stakes are always high at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway, site of Sunday’s Good Sam Roadside Assistance 500. The vast, 2.66-mile oval produces speeds so quick that NASCAR forces team to put carburetor-choking restrictor-plates on its engine’s intake manifold, which keeps speeds just a tick below the 200 mph mark, slowing cars enough so that if they get sideways, they won’t carry enough speed to launch into the air as the car’s aerodynamics become reversed. Chevy Impalas, Ford Fusions, Dodge Chargers and Toyota Camrys weren’t made to go 200-plus mph, even when they have crazy paint schemes and numbers painted on their roofs. Formula One machines they aren’t, and in the name of safety, the restrictor-plate is rudimentary technology that keeps these rudimentary cars grounded… most of the time.
But every now and then a launch button is pushed, and a spectacular somersault of a crash that appears over and over on the next day’s rounds of network morning shows penetrates the mainstream. Multi-car accidents, better known as Big Ones, jumble the point standings as front-runners are collected while others emerge unscathed.
The Big One is bound to happen again at Talladega, and if history is any indication, more than once during Sunday’s 188-lap contest. Who comes out with decent finishes will be the ones still in the hunt for the championship. But for those at the other end of the spectrum, their championship hopes are going to look like their racecars – unsalvageable.
Tony Stewart, driver of the No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet for Stewart-Haas Racing, enters the sixth to last race of the season fifth in points, 32 behind Chase leader Brad Keselowski. Stewart could very well emerge from Talladega atop the point standings, as he did in October 2002 en route to the first of his three Sprint Cup titles, or wind up tumbling out of championship contention because he was caught up in the Big One.
Multi-car accidents are commonplace at Talladega, and for every time that Stewart has logged a top-10, he’s also had a finish outside the top-25. His win in October 2008 and six second-place finishes are augmented by five DNFs (Did Not Finish).
What will this round of racing at Talladega bring? No one really knows. Restrictor-plate racing is like a game of high stakes poker and anything that can happen will happen at the notorious, high-banked oval. Given the track’s history, this weekend’s race at Talladega may be the biggest gamble of the 2012 Sprint Cup season.
Anyone in contention for the championship goes into this weekend’s race with no illusions. Each driver is well aware of the challenge that lies ahead, and each has a game plan for negotiating the pitfalls of restrictor-plate racing.
The old racing adage that to finish first, one must first finish is never more true than at Talladega in October. Various self-preservation tactics will be employed on Sunday to do just that, as some drivers will ride around in the back of the pack for the majority of the race in an effort to avoid the Big One, while others will race to the front of the pack and stay there so that when the Big One eventually comes, their only view of it is from their rearview mirror.
Talladega is indeed a gamble, and in order to be successful in this game of chance, it’s best not to show your hand too early. With three Sprint Cup titles and 47 career wins to his name, Stewart is as savvy as they come. The Columbus, Ind., native knows full well “you never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table” because with the Chase taking center stage at Talladega this weekend, the championship battle can change in a heartbeat. Everyone will have a better understanding of where they stand when the dealing’s done.
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