Chase Chances

On a miserable day for Hendrick Motorsports, Kasey Kahne also suffered a blown right front tire and smacked the wall. Dale Earnhardt Jr. blew an engine while leading. JeffGordon was the innocent victim of an early spin by Bobby Labonte.

Doubtless all three drivers will shake off their bad luck and regroup, but, where the Chase is concerned, the mishaps have them all in positions that range from uncomfortable to downright precarious.

What it means: Kahne lost four positions in the standings and stands 12th, no longer in a Chase-eligible position. Yes, Kahne currently leads the wild-card standings and in fact is the only driver in a wild-card eligible position (11-20 in the standings) with a victory.

But Kahne has to worry about two things: one, drivers with victories dropping out of the top 10; and two, drivers with no wins getting one or two and passing him in the standings.

Earnhardt lost three spots to seventh in points. Though he’s still in the top 10, Earnhardt has no wins, and he’s only 32 points ahead of Paul Menard in 11th place. With no wild-card insurance right now, Earnhardt could see his Chase hopes dashed by another DNF or two.

Gordon is in real trouble. He dropped five spots to 16th in points, and he has no victories to help him out in the quest for a potential wild card. Yes, Gordon is only 19 points out of 10th place, but the driver in 10th is upwardly mobile Tony Stewart, whose star is on the rise while Gordon’s clearly is not.
Worse yet, with all the ill fortune that’s befallen him this year, Gordon is starting to sound like a driver who expects the worst to happen. When you have that mind-set, it usually does.

Last year, Hendrick Motorsports got all four of its cars into the Chase by the slimmest of margins. This year, I don’t see it.