Tipping point

Denny Hamlin may have a choice to make, sooner rather than later.

Thanks to a shock absorber issue at Michigan, the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota finished 30th and took another blow to his fading hopes of making the Chase after missing four races with a back injury.

Now 26th in the standings, Hamlin is 85 points — nearly two full races — behind Kurt Busch in 20th, the position Hamlin must reach, at a minimum, to be eligible for a wild card. At this point, Hamlin also would need to win at least one, probably two of the final 11 races.

What it means: A last-lap accident at Fontana, Calif., in late March caused the compression fracture of Hamlin’s first lumbar vertebra that kept him out of the car. It also exacerbated a chronic problem Hamlin has with bulging discs, and those are more painful than the fracture was.

Hamlin is considering surgery to correct the problem and said in April that he’ll consider an operation during the season if it becomes obvious that he’s not going to make the Chase.

Though Hamlin still has a slim hope, the time for that choice is fast approaching. One or two more bad races, and Hamlin can resign himself to missing the playoff for the first time in his career